本研究旨在探究适合晋北地区饲用燕麦(Avena sativa L.)轮作制度及各区域饲用燕麦产量对气候变化和轮作制度的响应。为此，基于已验证的APSIM (Agricultural Production System sIMulator)设定3种轮作制度，即O-O (饲用燕麦连作)、P-O (马铃薯-饲用燕麦轮作)、M-O (玉米-饲用燕麦轮作)，结合气候模型对晋北18个站点进行模拟研究。结果表明：APSIM可有效模拟晋北地区玉米，马铃薯和饲用燕麦的生产，归一化均方根误差NRMSE小于21%，一致性系数d大于0.90；平鲁、神池、左云饲用燕麦产草量高(16,020~20,817 kg hm^?2)；对比MID与BAS时期，各站点O-O、M-O、P-O饲用燕麦产草量增加5.49%~23.20%；对比END和MID时期，代县、大同等10站点O-O、M-O和P-O的饲用燕麦产草量提高0.27%~9.15%，繁峙仅O-O产草量显著下降22.76%；P-O系统有更多的季后土壤水分留存，多数情况下实行该系统更利于饲用燕麦高稳产；土壤储水能力较差但植物可利用水分较高的阳高点，易因预测情景的降雨量提高弥补燕麦生长旺盛期被利用的水分，利于耗水较多的O-O。综上，本研究结果有助于挖掘晋北区域饲用燕麦生产对区域气候变化的响应机制，并为饲用燕麦高产、稳产的科学管理提供理论基础。

To investigate the suitability of crop rotation systems involving forage oats (Avena sativa L.) and their response to climate change in northern Shanxi Province, this study utilized the validated APSIM (Agricultural Production System sIMulator) climate model. Three planting patterns were employed: O-O (continuous cropping of forage oats), P-O (rotation of potato and forage oats), and M-O (rotation of maize and forage oats). Scenario simulations were conducted at eighteen sites. The results demonstrated the effective simulation of maize, potato, and forage oats production in northern Shanxi Province using APSIM. The normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) values were below 21%, while the Willmott agreement index (d) values exceeded 0.90. The highest forage oats yield was observed in Pinglu, Shenchi, and Zuoyun, ranging from 16,020 to 20,817 kg hm^-2. The forage yield of O-O, M-O, and P-O systems in the mid-period (MID) exhibited an increase of 5.49% to 23.20% compared to the base period (BAS). In the end period (END), the forage oats yield in Daixian, Datong, and 10 other locations improved by 0.27% to 9.15% compared to the MID period, while it decreased by 1.84% to 4.10% in Zuoyun, Shuozhou, Youyu, and Shenchi. Notably, the forage yield of O-O in Fanshi was 22.76% lower in the END period compared to the MID period. The P-O system exhibited superior soil water retention compared to other systems after the growing seasons, making it more effective in achieving high and stable forage oats production in most cases. For the Yanggao site, which had poor soil water storage capacity but high plant available water, the projected high precipitation conditions would compensate for the relatively high-water consumption in the O-O system. Overall, the findings of this study contribute to understanding the response mechanism of forage oats production to regional climate change in northern Shanxi Province and provide a theoretical basis for the scientific management of high and stable forage oats production.